The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened slightly lower in the night session and continued to fluctuate rangebound, retreating from the 300,000 mark with reduced positions. [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on November 28, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2601) opened slightly lower in the night session and continued to fluctuate rangebound, falling below the 300,000-yuan mark to close at 298,610 yuan/mt, down 0.42% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) He Yaqiong, Director of the Consumer Goods Industry Department at the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), stated at a press conference that by the end of H1, the user base of generative AI products in China reached 515 million, with application scenarios continuously expanding and AI terminal products emerging competitively. Future consumption will no longer be about purchasing a single product but subscribing to a lifestyle. MIIT will focus on product innovation and scenario innovation to accelerate the implementation of AI technology in the consumer goods sector. (2) At a State Council policy briefing on November 27, Yang Ye, Director of the Market Operation and Consumption Promotion Department of the Ministry of Commerce, noted that from January to October, trade-in programs for consumer goods drove sales exceeding 2.4 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people. Passenger NEV retail sales reached 10.15 million units, up 21.9% YoY. (3) At the same briefing, Yang Ye emphasized that goods consumption is a key area for boosting consumption and benefiting livelihoods. The Ministry of Commerce will next promote pilot reforms in auto circulation and consumption, expand used car circulation, develop auto aftermarkets such as modification, leasing, racing, and RV camping, and boost auto consumption across the entire chain.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply is tightening in major producing regions like Yunnan. Most smelters are expected to maintain stable production in November. (2) Demand side: Orders have decreased significantly due to weak demand in consumer electronics and home appliances. Downstream procurement remains cautious, with high prices noticeably suppressing actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although AI computing power upgrades and growth in PV installations have driven some tin consumption, their current contribution remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in traditional sectors.

Spot market: The sharp rise in tin prices yesterday impacted the spot market. Some downstream and end-users, concerned about further price increases, conducted small-scale restocking and just-in-time procurement, while others adopted a wait-and-see attitude and suspended purchases. Trading activity among traders was sluggish, with most transactions around 10 mt.

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